Using Integrated Hydrological Models to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Discharges and Extreme Flood Events in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Amongst the impacts of climate change, those arising from extreme hydrological events are expected to cause greatest impacts. To assess changes in temperature and precipitation their on discharge upper Yangtze Basin pre-industrial end 21st century, four models were integrated with global models. Results indicated that mean was simulated increase slightly for all forced by during 1771–1800 1871–1900 relative 1971–2000 reference period, whereas change directions not consistent among 2070–2099, increases HadGEM2-ES MIROC5, decreases GFDL-ESM2M IPSL-CM5A-LR. Additionally, our results may always result decrease discharge, but did lead due high rise. The flood different return intervals also explored. These projected become more intense frequent future, which could have potential devastating society ecosystem this region.